Veteran political journalist and lobbyist Richard Baguma has advised National Unity Platform (NUP) leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, that President Yoweri Museveni does not view him as a major threat. According to Baguma, Museveni’s primary concern in Uganda’s political landscape remains opposition heavyweight Dr. Kizza Besigye. He urged Bobi Wine to recognize his position as an underdog and prepare strategically if he hopes to attain state power in the future.
Baguma told Bobi Wine that he still has much to learn before competing with influential figures in Uganda, including Museveni’s eldest son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Chief of Defence Forces, and Museveni’s son-in-law, Odrek Rwabwogo, chairperson of the Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development (PACEID). Leadership, he emphasized, requires experience beyond grassroots popularity.
“I speak in good faith—Museveni cannot be overthrown through these elections. Even if his power were removed, like in Sudan under Omar al-Bashir or Libya under Muammar Gaddafi, it would likely pass to those close to him, making it extremely difficult for people like Bobi Wine,” Baguma warned.
Baguma explained that governing a country involves far more than rallying crowds. He questioned whether Bobi Wine’s team could manage international diplomacy, defend the government at the United Nations, or negotiate with major powers like the United States. Strategy, alliances, and experience are crucial for these responsibilities.
He advised Bobi Wine to seek guidance from seasoned opposition leaders like Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu and Dr. Kizza Besigye, who have decades of experience challenging Museveni and strong networks within state institutions. Museveni reportedly monitors Besigye more closely than Bobi Wine because of Besigye’s political knowledge and strategic influence.
Baguma also noted that while Bobi Wine enjoys strong support among urban youth, this alone cannot secure power. “Museveni will use arrests, intimidation, and imprisonment to assert authority over them,” he warned, citing the government’s strict measures against political opponents.
The article highlighted recent government actions against perceived internal threats. For example, Lt Gen Henry Tumukunde, a former spy master, was arrested for allegedly attempting to infiltrate Bobi Wine’s youth groups. Several youths involved remain imprisoned, demonstrating the serious security measures used to maintain control.
Kira Municipality legislator Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda observed that Museveni is gradually transferring state power to his son Muhoozi as he ages. Muhoozi is consolidating authority while learning leadership responsibilities, emphasizing that elections remain the main opportunity for opposition leaders to gain influence. Missing this window could limit future political options.
Baguma referenced historical precedent, noting that when Museveni assumed power in 1986, he sought guidance from respected figures such as the late Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere and Tanzania’s President Julius Nyerere to build governance structures. He advised Bobi Wine to similarly learn from experienced leaders to prepare for potential future leadership roles.
Meanwhile, reports indicate ongoing discussions between Museveni’s government and opposition parties—including the Democratic Party, Uganda People’s Congress, Democratic Front, and Forum for Democratic Change—about forming a joint government to ensure a peaceful transfer of power. Although allegations of Museveni funding opposition groups have surfaced, the parties involved have denied such claims.
